DEDUCTIVE AND INDUCTIVE REASONING: TWELVE ORIGINAL ARGUMENTS
QUESTIONS ONLY

For each case, identify the premises (P1, P2 and so on) and conclusion (C); state the offered support: a deductive guarantee, an inductive estimate/prediction, or insufficient information; then explain whether that support succeeds. For a failed guarantee, describe a situation with all premises true and the conclusion false. For an estimate, name the sampling or stability issue. All cases and numerical records are fictional.

A fictional archive promises a guarantee. P1: Every document in Cabinet A is catalogued. P2: Document L is in Cabinet A. C: Document L is catalogued.
Premises: ______
Conclusion: ______
Support and reason: ______
Counterexample or limitation: ______

A fictional venue argues that entry proves a badge is valid. P1: If Jo has a valid badge, entry is permitted for Jo. P2: Entry is permitted for Jo. C: Jo has a valid badge. The venue presents C as guaranteed.
Premises: ______
Conclusion: ______
Support and reason: ______
Counterexample or limitation: ______

In a fictional device, P1: If the heater is on, its indicator is lit. P2: The heater is not on. C: The indicator is not lit. A technician claims the premises guarantee C.
Premises: ______
Conclusion: ______
Support and reason: ______
Counterexample or limitation: ______

A fictional studio offers a guarantee. P1: All senior members are registered members. P2: All registered members have signed the studio agreement. C: All senior members have signed the studio agreement.
Premises: ______
Conclusion: ______
Support and reason: ______
Counterexample or limitation: ______

The fictional inventory shows exactly two single-colour tokens in Box K: one red and one blue. An argument nevertheless claims a guarantee. P1: Every token in Box K is red. P2: The blue token is in Box K. C: That blue token is red.
Premises: ______
Conclusion: ______
Support and reason: ______
Counterexample or limitation: ______

A fictional class uses a complete, closed roster. P1: The only registered students are Ari, Bo and Cy. P2: Ari has submitted the form. P3: Bo has submitted the form. P4: Cy has submitted the form. C: Every registered student has submitted the form. The teacher presents a guarantee.
Premises: ______
Conclusion: ______
Support and reason: ______
Counterexample or limitation: ______

In a fictional club of 1,000 members, 100 members are selected at random without replacement and all answer the same clearly worded question. P1: Ninety of those 100 prefer a morning meeting. C: Probably most club members prefer a morning meeting. The organizer offers a sample-based estimate, not a guarantee.
Premises: ______
Conclusion: ______
Support and reason: ______
Counterexample or limitation: ______

Another organizer asks only five friends from the club’s evening study group. P1: All five prefer evening meetings. C: Probably most of the 1,000 club members prefer evening meetings. The organizer offers a sample-based estimate.
Premises: ______
Conclusion: ______
Support and reason: ______
Counterexample or limitation: ______

A fictional bag contains exactly 100 single-colour tokens: 90 red and 10 blue. P1: Those are all its tokens. P2: One token will be drawn, with each token equally likely. C: The drawn token will probably be red. This is a prediction of the outcome.
Premises: ______
Conclusion: ______
Support and reason: ______
Counterexample or limitation: ______

A fictional commuter records a particular weekday service. P1: Its last 20 departures were on time. C: Its next departure will probably be on time. The commuter uses the record as a forecast.
Premises: ______
Conclusion: ______
Support and reason: ______
Counterexample or limitation: ______

Use the same fictional 100-token bag as case 9. P1: Exactly 90 tokens are red and 10 are blue. P2: Each token has the same chance in one draw. C: The probability of drawing red is 9/10. The calculation is presented as guaranteed by these premises.
Premises: ______
Conclusion: ______
Support and reason: ______
Counterexample or limitation: ______

You find only this note: “The meeting-room door is closed. Therefore, the meeting has begun.” The note gives no venue rule, observation record or explanation of the intended strength of support. P1: The door is closed. C: The meeting has begun.
Premises: ______
Conclusion: ______
Support and reason: ______
Counterexample or limitation: ______